I am a prophet
A few years ago I read a book by Charles Mann, The Wizard and the Prophet. Mann proposes two competing theories of environmentalism, theories which have gone on to shape every environmental movement or policy for the past 50 years in one way or another.
The Wizard refers to Norman Borlaug whose innovative farming and breeding practices dramatically increased crop yields in both corn and rice. It is not an overstatement to say that Norman Borlaug provided food for an additional billion people on the planet. Borlaug refused to believe that famines were inevitable and that the resources on Earth could be so easily depleted. He combined on his agrarian upbringing and his academic research to drastically change the way human beings thought about farming altering Earth's perceived carrying capacity in the process.
The Prophet, William Vogt, was an ornithologist who began his career studying bird populations in South America. Quite the opposite of Borlaug, Vogt believed that the growth in the food supply was linear while population growth was exponential. And at a rapidly approaching point Earth would reach its carrying capacity leading to global catastrophes.
It should be noted that neither of these men considered themselves wizards or prophets, and frankly they did not create these ideologies, or likely even think much about the other (although almost contemporaries Borlaug gained much of his recognition after Vogt died). Mann just uses both world views as an illustration for the broader pull in modern environmentalism.
On the one hand we have wizards who drive electric cars, install solar panels and are interested in off-shore algae farming. On the other hand there are those who believe that the only solution is to stop growth, to put the breaks on capitalism, to embrace a vegan diet and save the earth by elimination rather than innovation. Wizards are not conservationists by nature, rather than hitting the breaks the wizards are frantically figuring out how we can extend the runway or put wings on the car before we hit the cliff, and so far they've been able to sort it out. But as I've already written eventually the cliff growth can not be constant.
Both view points have a lot of appeal, and when I read the book I went back and forth between optimism of the Wizards and the pessimism of the Prophets, but I kept landing on the side of the Prophets. As I read the chapters on wind, solar and nuclear, energy I found myself agreeing with the Wizards. But then I realized that natural gas was part of the energy solutions the Wizards gave us. Borlaug was the father of what is called the "green revolution" which fed billions but left behind a legacy of over fertilization, destructive algae blooms and an ever increasing cycle of depleted soils. I don't say this to detract at all from Borlaug he was an amazing man who perhaps more-so than anyone deserved the Nobel Peace Prize but it is important to realize that while we can stretch our resources, there are always consequences. With that realization also came the clarity, I was firmly in the prophet camp.
The choices I had already made before reading the book put me strongly in the prophet camp. A vegetarian diet is, by definition, a Prophetic diet. I've since moved to a vegan diet. This year, this experiment, this blog is the epitome of Prophet thinking. Wizards don't "consume less" they consume smarter. This resonates with me, I do think we can make more sustainable products, I do think we can feed more people with less land but I also think that we can't do any of that moving in the direction we currently are at the speed we currently are. We can't continue to eat meat with every meal, have two SUVs in every driveway (frankly even having a yard with a driveway is asking a lot) and give 10 billion people a good standard of living. We need to make a drastic u-turn and fast. This viewpoint is inherently that of a Prophet.
The Wizard and the Prophet is worth a read, and frankly the problems our planet faces will be solved by a combination of Elon Musk type Wizardry and Greta Thunberg like prophecy. In the end we are all on the same spaceship but it is important to realize, ideologically where you stand.